Analyzing the twelve-team College Football Playoff

Cloud Nine Higher online magazine has a tradition called the Chennai-Nashville Pick'em Challenge. Me, the publisher (James Rose), from Nashville, versus Pattu Subramaniam, the football analyst, from Chennai, India.

For many years now, Pattu and I have squared off in a friendly competition involving the best of college football games - from Week Zero in August to the national championship game in January.

Here is one observation from my colleague: All four teams that received first-round byes after winning their respective conference championships in 2024-2025 went on to lose in the quarterfinals.

To wit - The following scores:
Penn State 31, Boise State 14
Texas 39, Arizona State 31 2OT
Ohio State 41, Oregon 21
Notre Dame 23, Georgia 10

The Boise State Broncos won the Mountain West Conference title. The Georgia Bulldogs captured the SEC crown. The Arizona State Sun Devils topped the Big XII in their first year in the conference. The Oregon Ducks were on top of the college football world, including a win over Penn State in the Big Ten title game, 45-37, before losing to Ohio State.

Oregon beat Penn State in the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis, but Penn State played in the Orange Bowl semifinal game. The Ducks are back in Oregon preparing for next season after losing in their first playoff game.

Is this the best way to seed a college football playoff? Are we really giving the best four teams byes to the quarterfinals? Reasonable minds can differ.

Here is the view from Pattu Subramaniam: "In my opinion, the final power rankings should be independent of the conference championship games. All college teams must be identified with their respective conferences unless they are independent like Notre Dame. All conference winners should get an automatic bid to the playoffs but not necessarily a first round bye. The twelve-team ranking must be final based on regular season games plus conference championship games. The top twelve should get in."

This is the inaugural year for the twelve-team format. The trend of the four top seeds becoming "one and done" may (or may not) continue.

Under the prior four-team format, we also had the "Power Five" conferences. One big-time conference champion would always be left out - no matter what happened. Therefore, it made more sense to pick the "best teams", regardless of whether they won their respective conference titles. In 2021-2022, the Cincinnati Bearcats were picked for the national semifinals. At the time, Cincinnati was not in the Power Five. They were a member of the American Athletic Conference. The Bearcats did not advance to the national title game, but they were deemed to be one of the top four teams in college football.

I say that a conference title means something. If you're an SEC fan, #ItJustMeansMore Peyton Manning talked of the significance of an SEC title when he was a Tennessee Volunteer. If you ask me, the SEC title Just Means Something Big. This year, it was something big for the Georgia Bulldogs, even though they lost to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl playoff game.

I would also like to see conferences return to divisional play to develop rivalries and to give more meaning to advancing to the title game. Most conference title games are now played between the top two teams in the regular season standings. When the SEC expanded to sixteen schools, it announced its own scheduling format that ensures that rivalry games remain on the schedule each year with the eight conference game opponents rotating regularly so that all teams face each other at least once in a period of years.

I get this, but I would like to see divisions in most of the conferences.

The Big XII championship, the Big Ten championship, and the Atlantic Coast Conference championship are big, as well, although perhaps not as culturally powerful as the SEC title. The Group of Five conferences are competitive, and the winner deserves credit in the Sun Belt, AAC, Conference USA, Mid-American, and Mountain West. This year, Group of Five Boise State was selected for the playoff and received a bye to the quarterfinals. 

The Clemson Tigers won the ACC championship this year but had to play in the first round of the playoff, losing to Texas in Austin, TX, 38-24, on December 21, 2024.

Texas did not win the SEC title in their first year of competition in this elite conference, but they advanced to the Cotton Bowl semifinal game. Georgia won the SEC but lost their first playoff game despite receiving the number two seed.

Does any of this remind you of March Madness hoops? Conference tournament winners and high seeds teams many times take "early exits" from the basketball bracket of 68.

My point is that conference titles mean something. Five of the current twelve college football playoff bids are reserved for conference champions. The other seven are reserved for teams that rank high in the national scheme of things - based on many metrics.

The teams that are left out will complain. It matters not: The field may be 68, 12, 4, or whatever. A line has to be drawn somewhere, and, from my point of view, twelve feels like a solid number for the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision.

Pattu wins our "pick'em challenge" every year and brings a high level of expertise to Cloud Nine Higher college football commentary. We are blessed to have him on board. I am sure you will hear more from both of us about the College Football Playoff. Most of us remember the pre-playoff days when the polls determined the national champion on the day following the final bowl games in early January. One thing is for certain: Any playoff is better than none.

James A. Rose, Publisher